Wednesday, January 14, 2004
An example of a good semi-bluff came up recently.
Three limpers when the Small Blind raised in a 15-30 hold-em game. I look down and see KQ of hearts. A fine multi-way hand so I call. Five players see the flop. The SB is a slightly loose player but is likely to have AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ-suited type hands in this situation.
Flop: A J 6 with two hearts giving me a flush draw and a straight draw.
Pre-flop raiser bets, I and two others call. The pot now has 7 big bets in it.
Turn: Off suit J paired the board.
The small blind bets again, which given the player did not really narrow his holdings much as he would bet a pair of Aces as well as KK, QQ here and of course Aces Full. On his bet, I raised the pot. I was pretty sure I could fold to a re-raise her as that would only be if he was actually full.
Looking at some math. If we give him AK, AA, or KK as his only possible holdings. Then his chance of having Aces full is 3 divided by divided by 21 or about 14% percent of the time. His chance of having AK is about 12 by 21 or about 56%. Rest of the time he has KK.
If his possible hands include QQ then of course the chance of his having AK and AA go down.
This particular may, just may, lay down a pair of Aces if he thinks he reads me for a Jack.
Anyway, he call. And I waited for the river.
The river arrived, he checked, I bet and he folded.
Note that I did not say what the river was. I was going to bet whether I improved or not and as it turned out he was going to fold when he did not improve.
So, I risked 3 big bets in this semi-bluff. I had less than 14% chance I was drawing dead (in which case I would have lost 2 big bets). I had about a 12/46 or about 26 percent chance of improving to hand that should win. Plus I had significant chances of winning without improving, even if he does not lay down a pair of aces.
The pot I won had 9 Big bets, NOT counting the money I put into the pot on the turn and river. So I risked 3 to win 9 (or 10 if I had to improve to win and he called). Not a bad bet.
The key to the hand was that the Jack paired. This is the threat that I represented with my raise. Now if he does not have an Ace he has two things to worry about my having an Ace or having a Jack. He knows, I play tight so both these cards were possible holdings for me.
Plus of course my very tight image always works for me in these situations.
Three limpers when the Small Blind raised in a 15-30 hold-em game. I look down and see KQ of hearts. A fine multi-way hand so I call. Five players see the flop. The SB is a slightly loose player but is likely to have AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ-suited type hands in this situation.
Flop: A J 6 with two hearts giving me a flush draw and a straight draw.
Pre-flop raiser bets, I and two others call. The pot now has 7 big bets in it.
Turn: Off suit J paired the board.
The small blind bets again, which given the player did not really narrow his holdings much as he would bet a pair of Aces as well as KK, QQ here and of course Aces Full. On his bet, I raised the pot. I was pretty sure I could fold to a re-raise her as that would only be if he was actually full.
Looking at some math. If we give him AK, AA, or KK as his only possible holdings. Then his chance of having Aces full is 3 divided by divided by 21 or about 14% percent of the time. His chance of having AK is about 12 by 21 or about 56%. Rest of the time he has KK.
If his possible hands include QQ then of course the chance of his having AK and AA go down.
This particular may, just may, lay down a pair of Aces if he thinks he reads me for a Jack.
Anyway, he call. And I waited for the river.
The river arrived, he checked, I bet and he folded.
Note that I did not say what the river was. I was going to bet whether I improved or not and as it turned out he was going to fold when he did not improve.
So, I risked 3 big bets in this semi-bluff. I had less than 14% chance I was drawing dead (in which case I would have lost 2 big bets). I had about a 12/46 or about 26 percent chance of improving to hand that should win. Plus I had significant chances of winning without improving, even if he does not lay down a pair of aces.
The pot I won had 9 Big bets, NOT counting the money I put into the pot on the turn and river. So I risked 3 to win 9 (or 10 if I had to improve to win and he called). Not a bad bet.
The key to the hand was that the Jack paired. This is the threat that I represented with my raise. Now if he does not have an Ace he has two things to worry about my having an Ace or having a Jack. He knows, I play tight so both these cards were possible holdings for me.
Plus of course my very tight image always works for me in these situations.
Monday, January 12, 2004
Another fine session last night. Two hands, one where I played it well and one where I goofed big time.
Hand 1: Loose player slightly on tilt raises in early position, bad player calls cold, I call in the big blind with 34 suited. This is a slightly loose play, and usually I prefer having at least 56 suited in this situation.
Flop: Q 6 2 rainbow.
I bet the flop on this ragged board representing a Q and hoping to win outright. Original raiser calls and bad player folds. Heads up to the turn.
Turn: was a 5 completing my straight. I was planning to check and fold but of course now I have the nuts.
I bet the turn (again my default action here is to check-raise but given the player, I was not sure if there would be a bet on the turn - the reason for the check raise is to balance your play, see HPFAP for the discussion). My opponent had flopped a set of Queens, so we ended up putting 5 Big bets on the turn.
My semi-bluff bet on the flop triggered a massive misread of the situation by my opponent leading him to put many bets into the pot on the turn.
The power of misdirection.
Note also that a flop check and call is slightly wrong. A flop check raise is possible (specially as the opponent is on tilt) but is slightly too aggressive in my opinion though very close).
Hand 2:
One limper, late position poster checks his option, i raise in the big blind with JJ.
Flop: Kxx giving me second pair and a backdoor draw.
I bet and get called by the poster, who could have as little as an ace or a small pair hoping I have AQ or a King.
Turn is a rag card, I bet again and get raised.
Should have folded, instead paid off all the way and was shown Kings Up, having put 2 more big bets drawing to three outs. Very stupid!
Hand 1: Loose player slightly on tilt raises in early position, bad player calls cold, I call in the big blind with 34 suited. This is a slightly loose play, and usually I prefer having at least 56 suited in this situation.
Flop: Q 6 2 rainbow.
I bet the flop on this ragged board representing a Q and hoping to win outright. Original raiser calls and bad player folds. Heads up to the turn.
Turn: was a 5 completing my straight. I was planning to check and fold but of course now I have the nuts.
I bet the turn (again my default action here is to check-raise but given the player, I was not sure if there would be a bet on the turn - the reason for the check raise is to balance your play, see HPFAP for the discussion). My opponent had flopped a set of Queens, so we ended up putting 5 Big bets on the turn.
My semi-bluff bet on the flop triggered a massive misread of the situation by my opponent leading him to put many bets into the pot on the turn.
The power of misdirection.
Note also that a flop check and call is slightly wrong. A flop check raise is possible (specially as the opponent is on tilt) but is slightly too aggressive in my opinion though very close).
Hand 2:
One limper, late position poster checks his option, i raise in the big blind with JJ.
Flop: Kxx giving me second pair and a backdoor draw.
I bet and get called by the poster, who could have as little as an ace or a small pair hoping I have AQ or a King.
Turn is a rag card, I bet again and get raised.
Should have folded, instead paid off all the way and was shown Kings Up, having put 2 more big bets drawing to three outs. Very stupid!
